Economics
State of the economy at the end of 2026
In Dec 2026
Markets
Overheating
40%
Stagflation
35%
Soft landing
26%
Slack / disinflation
7%
Rules
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
Outcome verified from Federal Reserve Economic Data and Federal Reserve Economic Data.
Additional prohibitions
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Legal
By trading on this market, you agree to the Trading prohibitions, Member agreement, and DFlow terms of service.