Economics
Which countries will have a recession before 2027?
Before 2027
Markets
United Kingdom
41%
Japan
32%
India
9%
China
7%
Rules
If United Kingdom has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The exact dataset for United Kingdom is GDP, Real, Seasonally Adjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.
Outcome verified from IMF.
Additional prohibitions
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