Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?
If legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire December 31, 2025. Clarification (11/14/25): Any extension that continues the enhanced premium tax credits past this year qualifies for a Yes resolution, regardless of modifications to the extension's structure. This would include extensions that reduce the subsidy amounts or modify eligibility criteria. An extension of the credits for any length of time beyond the current expiration date is encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
Outcome verified from White House and Library of Congress.
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