Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held
Elections

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

the 2026 Brazilian Senate Election
Markets
PL
77%
União Progressista
23%
MDB
10%
Rules

If PL holds the most total seats in the Brazilian Senate following the 2026 Brazilian Senate Election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. A seat is won when the candidate is declared elected by the electoral authority and either the challenge period has expired, legal challenges are resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is based on the party under which the candidate was elected, regardless of later changes. In case of ties for a rank, all tied parties at that rank resolve to Yes with values split proportionally. If a ranking is skipped due to ties (e.g., two parties tie for #1, next is #3), markets for the skipped rank (#2) resolve to No.

Outcome verified from the official electoral commission or electoral authority responsible for , The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, The Source Agencies are, NBC, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Fox News, CNN, Politico, Bloomberg News, CBS, in hierarchical order and The New York Times.

Additional prohibitions
  • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
  • Immediate family members (spouses and dependents) of any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
  • Paid staffers on any campaign listed within this event.
  • Third-party vendors, contractors, consultants, and outside counsel (and employees thereof) engaged by any campaign listed within this event.
  • Paid employees of national, state, or congressional party organizations (including, e.g., the DNC, RNC, DCCC, NRCC, DSCC, and NRSC).
  • Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and independent-expenditure-only political committees ("Super PACs") active in any race listed within this event.
  • Registered federal lobbyists retained by any campaign, party organization, or PAC active in any race listed within this event.
  • Holders of federal and statewide public office.
  • State legislators serving on committees with jurisdiction over election administration in any state with a race listed within this event.
  • All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
  • All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
  • All staff of the Executive Office of the President, including the Office of the President and the Office of the Vice President.
  • Commissioners and staff of the Federal Election Commission.
  • Senior staff (Schedule C and equivalent political appointees) of any federal agency with jurisdiction over election administration, election security, or election-related enforcement, including without limitation the Department of Justice (Public Integrity Section, Election Crimes Branch, and Civil Rights Division Voting Section) and the Department of Homeland Security (CISA).
  • All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
  • Federal and state judges presiding over active litigation related to any race listed within this event.
  • All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice President of the United States.
  • State Secretaries of State (and equivalent chief election officials), members of state and local boards of elections, election directors, registrars, and senior staff of state and local election administration offices.
  • Any person working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
  • Paid employees of major polling organizations. The Exchange shall maintain and publish a list of polling organizations it has designated as "major" and may modify that list at any time. This prohibition does not apply to all employees of an organization that contains a polling division (e.g., the prohibition does not apply to all employees of Quinnipiac University despite the presence of Quinnipiac University's polling division).
  • Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations, including but not limited to Fox News, ABC News, the Associated Press, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, The New York Times, and Reuters.
  • Employees of exit-polling and election-night survey operations engaged by media organizations or campaigns in any race listed within this event, including but not limited to Edison Research and the National Election Pool.
Legal

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