Who will win the next Colombian presidential election?

If the winner of the next Colombian presidential election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Abelardo de la Espriella, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a presidential or other direct election, the winner is the candidate who is officially declared elected by that authority and is subsequently sworn in, or whose inauguration date passes without a different person taking office. The market will resolve for that candidate even if they die or are incapacitated after the election but before taking office. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.

Outcome verified from or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections, in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission and constitutional court.