When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome verified from Science, Nature Physics, IEEE Transactions on Quantum Engineering, Physical Review X, Physical Review A, Quantum Science and Technology, Nature, The Wall Street Journal, Science Advances, the National Institute of Standards and Technology official publications, IBM Research peer-reviewed publications, MIT Technology Review, Associated Press, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Reuters, Quantum Computing Report, The New York Times, IonQ peer-reviewed publications, Science Magazine, Quantinuum peer-reviewed publications, Bloomberg News, Physical Review Letters, Google Quantum AI peer-reviewed publications and Nature Communications.
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