Climate and Weather

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Before 2050
Markets
Before 2050
80%
Rules

If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.

Outcome verified from Berkeley Earth, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NCEI and UK Met Office Hadley Centre (HadCRUT).

Additional prohibitions
  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
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Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? | Climate and Weather Prediction Markets | Solflare