Which central banks will hike before 2027?

If the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate or target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

A rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate. The market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used. If the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.

Outcome verified from Semafor, ABC, Bloomberg, NBC, The Washington Post, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Reuters, The Information, Politico, Axios, MSNBC, CNN, the New York Times and CBS.