Economics
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
In Q1 2026
Markets
Above 1.0%
77%
Above 1.5%
63%
Above 2.0%
51%
Rules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q1 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Additional prohibitions
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Legal
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