Economics
When will the next US recession start?
Next recession
Markets
Q1 2026
16%
Q4 2025
7%
Q2 2025
2%
Rules
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
Outcome verified from NBER.
Additional prohibitions
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Legal
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