Will youth unemployment fall below 7.5% in 2026?
If, in any of the remaining Employment Situation releases published after Issuance in calendar year 2026, the unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24, seasonally adjusted, is below 7.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market covers only Employment Situation releases scheduled to occur in calendar year 2026 and does not include the release scheduled for January 2027, even though that release may report December 2026 data. The relevant statistic is the BLS unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24, seasonally adjusted, series LNS14024887. FRED series LNS14024887 may be used as a reference source.
Outcome verified from Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation and Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
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