Elections

Margin of victory in the NJ-11 special Democratic primary?

On Feb 5, 2026
Markets
0-3%
98%
9-12%
1%
3-6%
1%
Rules

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the NJ-11 special election Democratic primary falls between 0% and 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by election winner minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind election winner if election winner wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if election winner loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by election winner minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind election winner if election winner wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if election winner loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by election winner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if election winner wins, or the electoral votes received by election winner minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if election winner does not. <p>Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If election winner runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural election winner will be summed.</p> <p>If election winner wins the election, the margin will be positive. If election winner loses the election, the margin will be negative. If election winner ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where election winner is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).</p>

Outcome verified from ABC News, Ballotpedia, Bloomberg News, CBS News, CNN, Federal Election Commission, Fox News, NBC News, New York Times, NPR, official election authority responsible for certifying results in , official government website of , Politico, Reuters, Secretary of State of , the Associated Press and The Wall Street Journal.

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