Elections

Prime Minister of Hungary after the 2026 election?

For the election expected to happen by April 2026
Markets
Péter Magyar
68%
Viktor Orbán
34%
Rules

If Péter Magyar becomes Prime Minister of Hungary as a result of government formation following the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election and meets all constitutional requirements before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this contract, **these rules will satisfy the payout criterion:** - The person must be formally appointed, sworn in, or invested according to the country's constitutional procedures and command the confidence of the parliament/legislature through an investiture vote, formal approval, or constitutional convention. - They must exercise the full powers of the office, not serve in a caretaker or acting capacity from the previous government. - The appointment must stem from the government formation process following the specified election. Serving as caretaker pending government formation, being designated to form a government but not yet invested, leading the party with most seats without forming government, being named as designate without completing constitutional requirements, or holding the position temporarily during coalition negotiations **do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion**. Special situations: - If no government forms by the deadline, all markets resolve to No except "No one" if that option exists. - If new elections are called before government formation, markets resolve immediately. - For rotating arrangements, the first person to meet all criteria resolves to Yes. - If the person leading a party dies before taking office, their market resolves to last fair price and their successor may resolve to Yes. - Markets for persons not explicitly listed resolve to "Other" if that option exists.

Outcome verified from BBC, Bloomberg News, Financial Times, major national news outlets of , office of the head of state of , official government gazette or equivalent official publication of , official government websites of , parliament or legislature of , Reuters, the Associated Press, The Guardian, The New York Times and The Washington Post.

Additional prohibitions
  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Legal

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