Elections

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

In 2028
Markets
J.D. Vance
24%
Gavin Newsom
21%
Marco Rubio
10%
Rules

If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome verified from Office of the Presidency.

Additional prohibitions
  • Holders of federal and statewide public office.
  • Paid campaign staffers on Presidential campaigns.
  • Anyone working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
  • Third-party vendors and contractors (and employees thereof) of Presidential campaigns.
  • Paid employees of Democratic and Republican Party organizations, such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee or the Republican National Committee.
  • Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and “Super PACs” (independent expenditure only political committees).
  • Paid employees of major polling organizations. This prohibition does not apply to all employees of an organization that contains a polling division (e.g. the prohibition does not apply to all employees of Quinnipiac University despite the presence of Quinnipiac University’s polling division). The Exchange shall determine which polling organizations constitute “major” and may modify that determination at any time, and will post publicly a list of those organizations on its website
  • Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations (including, but not necessarily exclusive to, Fox News, ABC News, AP, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ and NBC News). The Exchange shall determine which media organizations constitute “major” and may modify that determination at any time, and will post publicly a list of those organizations on its website.
  • All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice-President of the United States
  • All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members
  • All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
  • All staff of the Office of the President of the United States
  • All staff of the Office of the Vice President of the United States
  • All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices
  • Any foreign national. This is defined as an individual who is: (1) not a citizen of the United States and (2) not lawfully admitted for permanent residence (as defined in 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(20)); or a foreign principal, as defined in 22 U.S.C. § 611(b). Section 611(b) defines a foreign principal to include a foreign government or political party; or a partnership, association, corporation, organization, or other combination of persons organized under the laws of a foreign country or whose principal place of business is in a foreign country.
Legal

By trading on this market, you agree to the Trading prohibitions, Member agreement, and DFlow terms of service.

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? | Elections Prediction Markets | Solflare