Who will win the 2026 Colombia Senate election?

If the winner of the next Colombian Senate election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Government Alliance, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. The Government Alliance compromises all parties that have at least one minister in the national government on the day of the 2026 congressional elections

Outcome verified from constitutional court, in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission and or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections.