Will marijuana be rescheduled?

If marijuana is rescheduled from Schedule I to a lower drug schedule under the Controlled Substances Act before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the DEA were to reschedule only certain cannabis derivatives or specific cannabinoids (e.g., move THC or a particular cannabis-derived pharmaceutical to a different schedule) without reclassifying marijuana/cannabis as a whole, that would not qualify as rescheduling marijuana for this contract. Ending the schedule altogether would resolve the market to Yes. Clarification (12/12/25): The Payout Criterion requires that marijuana is legally removed from Schedule I. The mere announcement or publication of a Final Rule in the Federal Register does not satisfy the Payout Criterion if the rule has not taken legal effect. The market resolves based on the actual status of the Schedules under the Controlled Substances Act.

Outcome verified from ABC, Axios, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, the Associated Press, The Information, The New York Times, the United States Congress, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post.