Elections

Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Dec 31, 2026
Markets
Delcy Rodríguez
73%
María Corina Machado
15%
Nicolás Maduro
12%
Rules

If Delcy Rodríguez officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: - Delcy Rodríguez has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela - Delcy Rodríguez is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela - Delcy Rodríguez is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified) The following do **NOT** constitute "officially holding" the role: - Nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective - Appointed with an effective date *after* Dec 31, 2026 - Previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026 - Serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity - Named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed - Holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself

Outcome verified from ABC, agency, Axios, Bloomberg News, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, official government website, official organizational website where role is housed, or company responsible for role, person, Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, the Federal Register, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post and USAJobs.gov.

Additional prohibitions
  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
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